Illusory Correlation is a cognitive bias where individuals perceive a relationship between two unrelated events, often because they co-occur or are striking in some way. This bias can lead to false beliefs about causality, reinforcing stereotypes and superstitions.
This phenomenon occurs when people focus on information that confirms their expectations while ignoring contradictory evidence. For example, if someone believes that all politicians are corrupt, they may notice and remember instances of corruption more readily than examples of honesty, reinforcing the false belief.
Illusory Correlations can lead to the formation of stereotypes, where individuals overgeneralize traits or behaviors to entire groups based on limited observations. This bias can also contribute to superstition, as people connect unrelated events and attribute meaning or causality where none exists. In decision-making, Illusory Correlation can lead to poor judgments and reinforce unfounded beliefs.
This bias arises from the human tendency to seek patterns and make sense of the world, even when there is no real connection between events. It is also fueled by confirmation bias, where people pay more attention to information that supports their pre-existing beliefs and ignore information that does not.
To prevent Illusory Correlation, it's important to critically evaluate the evidence for any perceived relationships and to be aware of the potential for bias. Keeping a record of events and examining them objectively can help to identify whether a correlation is real or imagined. Additionally, seeking out disconfirming evidence and considering alternative explanations can reduce the influence of this bias.
Research by Chapman and Chapman (1967) first identified the phenomenon of Illusory Correlation in the context of clinical psychology, where therapists perceived correlations between patient symptoms and test responses that were not actually present. Subsequent studies, such as by Hamilton and Gifford (1976), demonstrated how this bias contributes to the formation of stereotypes, as people overestimate the association between minority groups and negative behaviors.