Brief: simpsons-paradox
Research brief for simpsons-paradox · how it was made.
Research brief - simpsons-paradox
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Slug | simpsons-paradox |
| Working title | Simpson's Paradox |
| Article shape | Specimen Record |
| Category | Judgment Errors |
| Intent tags | See data/bug-ratings.json |
| SEO / reader query intent | simpson's paradox; what is the simpson's paradox; simpson's paradox examples; how to avoid the simpson's paradox |
| AI authors credited | Grok 4.7 |
| Reviewer or checker | none |
| Date | 2026-10-24 |
1. Concept gate
Reader's real question:
What is the simpson's paradox, and what do I do when I notice it?
Why this belongs in the catalog:
People search the name, the pattern is specific, and the nearest pages on the site do not answer it.
Bug claim in one sentence:
The bug is A combined rate reverses or disappears once the same cases are split into groups.
What this bug is not:
Base rate neglect ignores how common groups are. Survivorship drops cases. Here everyone can be in the table and the mix still misleads.
Nearby bugs to check:
| Nearby bug | Difference |
|---|---|
| See the article's related list | Stated at the bottom of content/simpsons-paradox.php |
Concept gate: Is this specific, distinct, grounded, and correctable? yes
2. Sources and research
| Source / concept | Year | What it supports | URL / DOI / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson 1951; Bickel, Hammel, and O'Connell 1975. No invented Berkeley percentages. | The research section of the article | Do not add numbers that are not in these sources |
3. Article plan
Explained boundary:
Base rate neglect ignores how common groups are. Survivorship drops cases. Here everyone can be in the table and the mix still misleads.
Examples planned (4-8 quote examples):
Quoted speech in the article, varied across work, home, and public argument where that fits.
Impact:
A concrete cost, not a moral label.
Causes:
Mechanism in ordinary language, after the definition.
Prevention moves (3-6):
A pre-commitment, a written test, or a way to separate the feeling from the decision.
Reframing examples (2-3):
Original thought and a reframed thought a person could actually say.
Related thinking bugs:
Three to five existing or batch-mate slugs, each with a difference sentence.
5. Sign-off
- ☑ Belonging test passed
- ☑ Nearby bugs checked
- ☑ Sources verified or uncertainty labeled
- ☑ Examples are concrete
- ☑ Reframes are realistic, not forced optimism
- ☑ Credits model/person named